Magomed Ankalaev will compete for the UFC light heavyweight title for the second time in his career at UFC 313 this weekend, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. His first attempt was back at UFC 282 when he fought for the vacant belt against Jan Blachowicz. On that occasion, the two men fought to a draw after Ankalaev was forced to wrestle after being beaten across the first two rounds on all three judges’ scorecards. The Russian clocked up 9:22 of control time in the final two rounds, managing to salvage a draw from the jaws of defeat.
Despite assumptions, Magomed Ankalaev hasn’t had to rely on his wrestling a lot throughout his time in the UFC. He’s got an accuracy of 31%, however, averages just 0.92 takedowns across 14 promotional fights. He went to ‘Plan B’ against Blachowicz through wrestling at UFC 282, but we know that it clearly wasn’t his intention. With that being said, even his takedown accuracy in that fight was only 20%.
Despite all the evidence suggesting that he won’t wrestle, that he maybe doesn’t have the skills to consistently wrestle for 25 minutes and will look to keep the fight standing, it would be wise not to. He’s facing arguably the best striker in UFC history. A man in Alex Pereira who has finished four straight opponents via knockout and is one of the most decorated kickboxing stars the UFC has seen. His left hook is one to be feared, he whips in leg kicks effortlessly, forcing his opponents to adjust constantly. He’s a master of range, convinces his opponents that he’s going to throw when he feints, only to adjust and lead to his opponents to second guess themselves.
With all that being said…What can he do off the flat of his back?
Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev – Clear Key to Victory but Reluctance
Where is Alex Pereira least effective in the eyes of Magomed Ankalaev? It’s simple: when he’s lying on his back, struggling to get back to his feet. How does he get there? Either a knockdown or a takedown. One of those options is far more likely for Ankalaev, the takedown.
In recent times, Pereira has faced three men, none of whom wrestle. Jiri Prochazka, Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr are all strikers, playing into the hands of the Brazilian. Earlier in his career he faced more strikers, Israel Adesanya and Bruno Silva, both of whom had success taking down Poatan.
Jan Blachowicz is the most well-rounded man to face Pereira and he took him down three times and controlled him with relative ease once the fight got to the ground. So why wouldn’t Magomed Ankalaev look to wrestle? Pride? Ego? Arrogance? Possibly all of the above.
If the UFC 313 challenger mixes the martial arts, keeps Pereira guessing, mix in takedowns and confuse Pereira in the octagon, it would make his night far more straight forwards. It’s been suggested, however, that he won’t do that.
🗣️Alex Pereira: “If things don’t go his way, he’ll try to take me down… that’s when I’ll surprise him.”
🗣️Magomed Ankalaev: “If I fight stand-up, he will have to stand and strike. If I want to wrestle, there will be wrestling. It’s 100% victory for us.”pic.twitter.com/0Yjm4cRNUG
— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) March 1, 2025
Keys to Victory for Alex Pereira
- Invest in the leg kick early
- Crowd the front kick of Ankalaev
- Meet fire with fire in striking exchanges
- Be aware of the headkick when out of range
Keys to Victory for Magomed Ankalaev
- Mix it up – Wrestle, clinch and make it ugly
- Mix the front kicks up, teap to the body, front kick high and oblique kick
- Extend combinations to fours and fives
- Live in the moment. Few Muslim fighters choose to fight at all during Ramadan, especially not across five rounds for the title. Enjoy the moment, it could be his last shot at the belt…
