An early look at Justin Gaethje vs. Arman Tsarukyan: Analyzing the rumored matchup

Justin Gaethje vs. Arman Tsarukyan is what many expect to be next. Unless he retires, 'The Highlight' will have to defend his UFC lightweight title, and there's no lightweight more deserving to face him than Tsarukyan, but what would that look like?

An early prediction for Justin Gaethje vs. Arman Tsarukyan

The Justin Gaethje vs. Arman Tsarukyan fight has not yet been confirmed, but it probably will be. The only potential roadblock is the UFC granting reigning UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski, who is coming off a stunning second-round TKO of Movsar Evloev, his wish to fight for the lightweight title again. UFC president Dana White is open to the idea, but he could have simply meant that he is open to allowing 'The Great' to fight whoever emerges victorious from the expected Gaethje vs. Tsarukyan title fight. After all, Tsarukyan did recently claim that he will be fighting for the lightweight belt next.

So, with all that being said, who is most likely to win the fight? To underestimate Gaethje would be foolish, especially after everyone did so prior to UFC Freedom 250. Yet, he proved them wrong by TKO'ing Ilia Topuria in round four of a brutal fight. Against Tsarukyan, Gaethje will have a clear advantage on the feet. He's more powerful and has a sharper grasp on striking fundamentals. First, there's his jab, which he uses in various ways. One of those ways is as an interrupting strike that interferes with his opponent's momentum. It's part of how he beat Rafael Fiziev twice, as he kept interrupting him mid-combination with a jab. But Gaethje also uses his jab as a setup to force a parry from his opponent. Once his opponent obliges with the parry, Gaethje cracks them on their exposed side with his right hand.

He also uses his jab and right hand to dupe his opponent into ducking under into the path of an uppercut. As heavy-handed as he is, 'The Highlight' is much trickier than he's often given credit for. So, in addition to his jab, he has also mastered the art of rhythm breaks. He'll throw one-twos at a specific speed to get his opponent accustomed to it, then he'll throw again, pause very briefly mid-throw, then land when they least expect it. His low kicks are also still in his arsenal, which he throws by turning his hip fully into them for maximum power. Tsarukyan, by contrast, is a serviceable striker, with some good kicks and a very fast axe kick, as well as some heavy power punches. But the truth is that he has nothing for Gaethje on the feet save for using a knee to punish Gaethje's habit of dipping so low to avoid punches.

Instead, Tsarukyan's wrestling and aggression are what matter. His takedown game is strong, and he's shockingly explosive. He also has a knack for taking advantage of his opponent's blunders. If he cannot get a takedown as easily, he's content with staying in the clinch and landing elbows and punches off the break to deal damage. He often uses his wrestling to create openings for strikes. So, whenever his opponent manages to spring back up after conceding a takedown, Tsarukyan has no issue blasting them combinations while they're more focused on scrambling. Though he will also scramble and is an exceptional submission threat on the ground.

Against Gaethje, he will take damage on the feet, as he doesn't move his head well. However, Gaethje has a bad habit of turning onto his stomach and getting on all fours to get back up from takedowns. This exposes his back, and against Tsarukyan, he'll be offering up his neck for potential chokes. So, how does the fight go? Tsarukyan likely survives a tough first round before taking advantage of Gaethje's habit of exposing his back to sink in a rear-naked choke.