Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3: An early look at the UFC 333 co-main event

The Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili trilogy takes place at UFC 333 on Oct. 24, where 'No Mercy' will look to defend his bantamweight title against a determined Dvalishvili, who has been chomping at the bit to reclaim the belt and avenge his loss. Their first two fights had very different outcomes, so just how different will their third one be?

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3: The dynamics at play

The ideal scenarios for Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili are not secrets. Each man has a general strategy they rely on in most of their fights. Yan likes to be on the front foot, applying slow, methodical pressure, while using the first round and a half to analyze his opponent's tendencies and responses, then using them to inform his decision-making once he's comfortable enough to let his hands go. Dvalishvili, by contrast, is all about relentless pressure. He comes forward with zero intention of stepping back, swarming his opponent with combinations and takedowns, all designed to not only exhaust the other fighter, but force them into a defensive shell.

In their first fight at UFC Fight Night 221, Dvalishvili successfully employed his strategy against Yan. He took advantage of Yan's tendency to start slow, and never gave him the time and space to sit back and study him. He attempted 49 takedowns, shooting before Yan could get comfortable striking, frustrating him with constant pressure. While he failed most of those takedowns, he still managed to keep Yan pinned against the fence in the clinch. Dvalishvili also used calf kicks to punish Yan for standing so heavy on his lead leg, which eventually forced him to switch stances. In the end, 'The Machine' won via unanimous decision in a dominant display that had many writing off Yan's chances in a rematch. However, UFC 323 was a complete 180 from their first fight.

Ahead of the rematch, which was contested for Dvalishvili's then bantamweight title, Yan claimed that the result of the previous fight had more to do with a broken hand that kept him from fighting effectively. Many dismissed this as an excuse, as fighters often find excuses to diminish their opponent's success. However, Yan may have been on to something. At UFC 323, he authored a masterclass. A beatdown that came down to him surgically dismantling his rival in a manner that many thought impossible. After all, Dvalishvili had elevated himself to such a point that he was being widely regarded as the greatest bantamweight of all time. Ahead of even Aljamain Sterling and the legendary Dominick Cruz.

So, what exactly did Yan do in the rematch?

First, he never allowed Dvalishvili to get going with his pressure game. 'The Machine' thrives when he's able to get on the inside, where his boxing combinations create openings for takedowns by forcing his opponent to square their hips. Whenever he tried to storm into range or shoot for a takedown, Yan trapped Dvalishvili's lead hand, then blasted his body with a left hook, punishing his advance. He also used sidekicks to the lead knee to intercept Dvalishvili's forward bounce. This kept Dvalishvili at a longer range than he's used to, telegraphing his takedown attempts and making them easier for Yan to defend. Another new wrinke to Yan's game was in the clinch. Whenever Dvalishvili secured a rear bodylock, Yan blasted his forearms with elbows, gradually weakening the grip and forcing Dvalishvili to readjust, creating openings for Yan to break free.

This paid dividends in the later rounds, as Dvalishvili's forearms had been weakened enough that Yan was able to break the grip during wrestling sequences more easily. Another game changer in the rematch was Yan's body kick, which he often used at the end of boxing exchanges. Dvalishvili, like many of Yan's opponents, assumed that he was safe after exiting boxing range. After all, Yan is primarily a boxer. However, this defensive negligence meant he left himself open to body kicks. Even when he began to pick up on the body kicks later on, Yan simply changed targets, battering Dvalishvili's lead leg and head. He also used different setups, like flashing the left hook to draw Dvalishvili's guard high, exposing his body to the kick.

In the end, these adjustments allowed Yan to win the rematch and become a two-time bantamweight champion. So, what about the trilogy?

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3: Early verdict

At UFC 333, both Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili will try their hardest to win the rivalry. Both men will make adjustments and the bout will likely be more competitive than their previous one. However, there's an x-factor. In his post-fight interview at UFC 333, Dvalishvili claimed that he lost because he fought in a more exciting manner than usual, as he tried to entertain the fans. Thus, he didn't wrestle as much. This is false, as Dvalishvili still shot for 29 takedowns. If this is a genuine belief of his, it might blind him to the real reasons behind his loss, so he could end up losing the trilogy bout because of this oversight.

Regardless, Dvalishvili, who is gunning for vengeance, will be well-prepared. However, Yan will likely win a competitive decision after building on his success from the previous bout, especially with his coach, Kairat Nurmagambetov, having created an entire decision tree to account for every possible scenario Dvalishvili could force them into.