Previewing a potential Justin Gaethje vs. Alexander Volkanovski fight

The likelihood of a Justin Gaethje vs. Alexander Volkanovski fight increased tremendously after UFC 333. While there is no shortage of contenders for Volkanovski at featherweight, and the same can be said for Gaethje at lightweight, it's now a bout that UFC president Dana White is considering. So, what does that style clash look like?

Justin Gaethje vs. Alexander Volkanovski: A brawler and a mover

There's a strong chance that Justin Gaethje vs. Alexander Volkanovski, if it does indeed happen, would feature no wrestling or grappling, at least none outside of brief clinch moments. Gaethje rarely uses his wrestling, and while Volkanovski does have good takedowns in his arsenal, they aren't usual parts of his fights unless he's facing an opponent with obviously weak takedown defense. So, it'll be contested mostly on the feet. Both men, though, differ greatly in terms of style. Gaethje does his best work as a technical brawler. He's very powerful, causing significant facial damage even when he fails to outright knock his opponent out, and it all starts from his jab.

Whenever he's coming forward, Gaethje uses his jab to interrupt his opponent. When they jab, he jabs with them, making it difficult for them to build off of the jab and string together combinations. If his opponent starts to parry the jab, he starts feinting it, only to throw a right hand over their lead hand to tag them on their exposed side. He can chain this with his lead uppercut, because once his opponent starts to anticipate this, he punishes their level change with the uppercut, countering them as they try to duck under his punches. He's also very adept at disrupting his opponent's rhythm. Gaethje will throw his jab, then lean forward as if to throw his right hand before pausing when his opponent expects the right hand, before suddenly committing to the right hand once they think they're safe.

This was highly effective against Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250. 'The Highlight's' bag of tricks also includes level changes. He'll rarely commit to a true takedown attempt, but the level change still convinces his opponent to drop their hands for a sprawl, only for him to unleash an uppercut up the middle or overhand right as they drop their hands. Perhaps his best known weapons are his low kicks. Rather than stepping in with a low kick, which telegraphs it, Gaethje prefers to turn his hip into the kick to generate power. These low kicks help setup his high kick, as once his opponent is concerned about their lead leg getting battered, they're in no position to parry the kick up top, and this kick is what helped him knock out Dustin Poirier in their rematch at UFC 291.

Defensively, Gaethje dips very low to avoid shots, and it can cause him to dip into knees and uppercuts, but he relies so much on his natural toughness that he's never truly addressed this deficiency, especially with how well his jab works in deterring opponents from coming forward. Volkanovski, by contrast, is more mobile. He has a bit of a wider stance, and prefers to stick and move, with his UFC 333 win over Movsar Evloev being an exception. He has a great jab of his own, that he also uses to interrupt taller fighters, all while circling at range, and slamming inside low kicks to kick his opponent out of their stance to force a reset, at which point he pounces with combinations.

Volkanovski is also an effective stance-switcher, and will close the distance by shifting stances mid-combination. To avoid getting countered on his way in with a shifting combo, he'll sometimes mix in a level change to duck under a counterpunch and implant the fear of a takedown in his opponent. So, the next time he starts a shift, they aren't sure whether they should sprawl for a takedown at the end, or prepare a counter for the combination. 'The Great's' fight IQ is also impressive. He makes reads and mid-fight adjustments when necessary, and one of the best examples was against Islam Makhachev at UFC 284.

In their first fight, Makhachev took advantage of Volkanovski's habit of closing the distance with shifting combos, as he always squared his hips mid-shift, exposing him to takedowns, which Makhachev began to time with perfect double-legs. Once Volkanovski picked up on this, he faked the shift in round five to draw out Makhachev's level change, only this time Volkanovski did not shift from orthodox to southpaw. He stayed in orthodox, changed levels with Makhachev and knocked the future double champion down with a great right straight.

Defensively, Volkanovski relies mostly on his movement to stay out of range, but he has a poor habit of getting into pocket boxing exchanges, where he's weakest, and then leaning away, which makes him a sitting duck whenever he gets into these exchanges with his back to the fence, with nowhere else to lean back to.

So, how does the fight with Gaethje unfold?

Justin Gaethje vs. Alexander Volkanovski: The Prediction

Justin Gaethje will almost certainly pressure Alexander Volkanovski from the jump. 'The Great' won't want anything to do with fighting him in the pocket. The difference in power is just too big. He'll definitely pick up on Gaethje's habit of dipping so sloppily, and could time a knee or uppercut, whereas Gaethje could trap him against the fence and make him pay for leaning away from everything.

If the fight, for which Volkanovski is eager, does get booked, it'll be competitive, but ultimately, Gaethje should get the late TKO.