Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey. The stage is set for UFC 316, and we have your need-to-know UFC 316 betting tips.
In the main event, Sean O’Malley looks to get his bantamweight title back as he rematches Merab Dvalishvili. The two men met in the main event of UFC Noche in The Sphere last year with the Georgian wrestling (literally) the belt away from Suga. Since then, O’Malley has sat out and waited for his rematch, whereas Merab took on Usman Nurmagomedov, going 25 minutes and retaining the belt.
In the co-main event, Julianna Pena returns for her first defence of her second reign as bantamweight champion. She takes on the phenom, Kayla Harrison. The two-time PFL champion has looked near flawless in her short, two-fight UFC career thus far and Pena has a tough task on her hands to retain her title.
We give you three UFC 316 betting tips to keep an eye out below:
UFC 316 Betting Tips
Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili – Fight ends inside distance +200
At +200, this seems like a fairly decent backing. Although last time out the fight went the distance, there were opportunities for both men to have ended things early. The American is a heavy-hitter and has been looking sharp in recent training footage.
Merab Dvalishvili’s sparring partner mimicking Sean O’Malley 👀
🎥 @bokamotoESPN #UFC316 pic.twitter.com/QDlfG08PSg
— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) May 15, 2025
In the footage, however, he appears to be sharp whilst going forwards and backing his opponent up, something that isn’t in Merab’s DNA. The Georgian hasn’t finished a fight since 2021 and only has one finish in 14 UFC fights. He’s much more of a ‘position over submission’ wrestler, however, is more than capable of grinding out a TKO finish if necessary.
Dvalishvili has to make a statement if he is to win, and a finish would do this. O’Malley’s best way to win is to catch Dvalishvili on the feet, much like he did to the champion’s teammate, Aljamain Sterling. Back this one not to go the distance.
Kayla Harrison via finish -150
Finally, Kayla Harrison will get her shot at UFC gold. Standing in her way is Julianna Pena, who, ahead of the fight, is a massive underdog, despite being the champion. She spoke to Ariel Helwani recently, stating that she feels ‘right at home’ being the underdog, something that she is used to during her career.
Julianna Peña on being a big underdog going into her fight with Kayla Harrison.#HelwaniShow pic.twitter.com/8jhyAuFbZB
— Jed I. Goodman © (@jedigoodman) May 6, 2025
Harrison is a brutal finisher and when (not if), she gets the fight to the ground, she makes it a long night for her opponent, regardless of who it is. In her UFC debut against Holly Holm, Harrison used her striking to close the distance, throwing a headkick before shooting in and getting the fight to the floor. Likewise, when she took down Ketlen Viera, she controlled the Brazilian with ease.
Pena isn’t known for being particularly strong off her back. When Amanda Nunes took her down in their rematch, she was controlled easily, threw up very little offence and didn’t appear to know how to get back up to her feet. Similarly, she was taken down and controlled by Sara McMann in the fight before she realised a title shot. With just a 23% takedown defence, Pena is potentially in for a long night at UFC 316.
Whether it’s by submission or a ground and pound, picking Harrison (who has 14 finishes in 19 fights) is your best bet. If there is a line out there for Harrison to call out Nunes afterwards, back that too!
Patchy Mix vs Mario Bautista – Under 2.5 rounds (+140)
Patchy Mix is making his highly anticipated UFC debut and whilst octagon gitters are a real thing, few have entered the UFC octagon with as much hype as Mix. At 20-1, the former Bellator bantamweight champion is no stranger to tough competition, with wins over Kyoji Horiguchi, Sergio Pettis and Magomed Magomedov. He’s recorded an impressive 15 wins, mostly via submission, so look for him to want to get this one to the ground.
Mario Bautista is on a rich vein of form, enjoying seven straight victories, including a win over Jose Aldo last time out. Like Mix, Bautista isn’t afraid to search for a finish, recording nine in 17 wins. It’s also worth noting that his two career losses have come via finish, so if Mix wins, expect it to be inside the distance.
Let us know if you are following any of our UFC 316 betting tips or comment any UFC 316 betting tips you have!
