Can Carlos Prates shock the world and beat Islam Makhachev? Analyzing the rumored matchup
Carlos Prates is reportedly next in line to face Islam Makhachev for the UFC welterweight title, and the fight might not be as one-sided as it seems.
Welterweight boogeyman Carlos Prates is favored as the next challenger to Islam Makhachev's 170-pound throne. On paper, it's a matchup many expect Makhachev to win with relative ease, but there are certain factors that can't be dismissed. Factors that could lead to a more competitive fight than most anticipate.
Carlos Prates' odds against Islam Makhachev: P4P power vs. P4P skill
No one has any illusions about what either man's strengths are. Carlos Prates is the better and far more dangerous striker, while Islam Makhachev is an infinitely better wrestler and grappler. Fortunately for Prates, he doesn't have to be as good a grappler as Makhachev. Only good enough to defend against the takedowns, because once the fight hits the mat, Makhachev likely finishes him, or at least keeps him there for the rest of the round. As a wrestler, Makhachev is exceptional, with a variety of takedowns at his disposal. He can force boxing exchanges, then dive under a punch when his opponent's hips are squared for a well-timed double-leg. If he's fed the single-leg instead, he turns the corner and drives through or raises their leg and trips them.
He's also dangerously creative, as he showed in his fourth-round submission win over Dustin Poirier at UFC 302 back in his lightweight days. While he was on one of Poirier's legs, trying to find the right angle for a single-leg takedown, he instead tugged Poirier's leg, pulling him to the mat. When Poirier planted his hands to get back up, Makhachev jumped on his exposed neck and sank in a D'Arce choke. Besides the wrestling, he's also an accomplished judoka, flexing his skills in the clinch, where he gets an over-under grip, then starts blasting his opponent's body with knees. The moment his opponent tries to land a knee of their own, Makhachev trips their standing leg. So, can Prates stop all of this? Probably not. He fights very tall and has been taken down by fighters whose wrestling and grappling don't compare to Makhachev's, though he didn't expect takedowns from strikers like Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry.
But, every round starts on the feet, and Makhachev isn't invincible. He struggled to fully implement his wrestling and grappling against a tall, rangy fighter like Garry at UFC 330, which Prates noticed, even claiming in an interview with Gilbert Burns that he intends to use the fence for get-ups, and that he's more confident in his defensive grappling after seeing how Makhachev struggles to get his hooks in against tall, long fighters. In the striking department, Prates' pressure will be uncomfortable for Makhachev since he'll have little time and space to shoot. Wrestlers in general do not like being on the backfoot, and Makhachev is no exception, even if he is a counter-striker on the feet, which will be ineffective against a taller, superior striker. He struggled with Garry's length and jab, and Garry's reach pales in comparison to Prates'.
Prates will snipe Makhachev with jabs, and blast his stance, which is lead leg heavy, with low kicks. The same ones that compromised Della Maddalena. To make matters worse for Makhachev, Prates is a southpaw, making hand-fighting more difficult, while creating openings for Prates' jab and follow-up combinations and knees. Then, of course, there's Prates' power. Power that has demolished nearly everyone in his path, including ex-welterweight champions in 'JDM' at UFC Fight Night 275 and Leon Edwards at UFC 322. If Makhachev can't take him down, he's almost certainly getting knocked out, and that's a scary situation for the sport's potential GOAT, with the bout rumored to be next.
