How does Movsar Evloev beat Alexander Volkanovski? Analyzing his keys to victory at UFC 333

UFC 333 will mark Movsar Evloev's first-ever title fight in the promotion, as he will challenge reigning featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski for the belt. If the undefeated Russian wants to keep his record spotless, he'll need to follow a very specific gameplan.

Movsar Evloev's difficult path to victory

There is no world in which Movsar Evloev makes it competitive with Alexander Volkanovski on the feet. The gap between their striking skills is astronomical. Evloev has a jab and a one-two that he uses to back his opponent up, along with a spinning backfist that he throws without setting it up. He has an odd low kick, but it's just there rather than being a component in a fully realized system. So, while he may think striking to be easier than grappling, he's just no good at it and has poor fundamentals. The only way he can win against Volkanovski is by dragging him into a wrestling match, but a very specific one.

Now, that isn't to say that Volkanovski is easy to take down. He isn't, and he's even harder to hold down, with even an all-time great like Islam Makhachev, who had a size advantage over him, having struggled to control him in their initial UFC 284 enocunter. Besides having a low center of gravity, the featherweight champion is also freakishly strong for his size, so it's unlikely that Evloev, as strong as he is, will be able to outmuscle him. In terms of Volkanovski's defensive wrestling, he'll sprawl, then grab a hold of his opponent's leg, before wrapping his arms around their torso to pull them forward, giving him their back and forcing them to abandon the takedown. Even when he is taken down, he either uses a butterfly guard to sweep his opponent or posts a hand on the mat to counter their forward momentum, before springing back to his feet.

Evloev won't get too much control time, and he's not exactly a submission threat, or even a finishing threat, as he hasn't finished anyone in 10 UFC fights, and Volkanovski is notoriously tough to submit. So, what can Evloev do to win? He'll need to wrestle and use ground-and-pound mid-scramble. He has a wide variety of takedowns, ranging from single legs and double legs to bodylock trips and more, and he has shown the ability to combine his wrestling and striking, like when he paired an ankle pick with an overhand right against Diego Lopes at UFC 288. Lopes had to choose between eating the punch or conceding the takedown, and he chose to concede the takedown. 

Against Volkanovski, he must abandon any notion that he'll control him. He should shoot for takedowns, force a scramble, then explode with combinations whenever 'The Great' is preoccupied with grappling sequences. Or, when he has Volkanovski convinced that he's searching for submissions or trying to advance to a better position, he should go all in with his ground-and-pound, like threatening to take the back with a body triangle only to land elbows and hammer-fists. Giving Volkanovski more to think about than simply defending takedowns and outscrambling him will be fundamental to any success he'll have.