UFC 330 main event stylistic breakdown: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry is the main event of UFC 330, with both men competing for the welterweight title. For Makhachev, it's his first title defense in his new weight class and one step closer to GOAT status. For Garry, however, it will be his chance to realize his professional dreams and establish himself as the world's best fighter. The matchup will be the most difficult in both men's careers, but who should be favored to win tonight?

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry: Analysis

At first glance, the UFC 330 main event appears to be a classic wrestler/grappler vs. striker clash. However, that isn't entirely fair to either Islam Makhachev or Ian Machado Garry, both of whom are well-rounded fighters of the highest order. Makhachev, a former two-division champion who once reigned at lightweight and is now the welterweight kingpin, is widely regarded as the world's best pound-for-pound fighter. On the feet, he is a patient striker with a clever arsenal of kicks and underrated boxing. He fights from a southpaw stance, with a good jab and a left straight. There isn't much aggression to his game, as he prefers to catch opponents on the counter. He does so by maintaining a longer range than usual, and punishing his opponents with low kicks and round kicks to the body, forcing them to close the distance to avoid being picked apart at range.

When he dethroned Charles Oliveira as lightweight champion at UFC 280, he did so by dropping him with a counter-right hook in round two, before tapping him out with an arm-triangle choke. His boxing also served him well against Dustin Poirier at UFC 302, where he punished 'The Diamond's' jab by slipping on the inside and countering him with a left hook before Poirier could string together his shifting combination. It is his kicks, however, that have carried him to great success. In his unanimous decision win over Jack Della Maddalena at, his low kicks were devastating, compromising 'JDM's' lead leg within two rounds. Several fights prior, in his rematch with Volkanovski at UFC 294, his feinting and the threat of low kicks helped set up the head kick that knocked Volkanovski out in round one. However, despite his great skill on the feet, Makhachev isn't a flawless kickboxer.

Left no doubt in the rematch 💥@MakhachevMMA is your final nominee for #UFCHonors Fan Choice Knockout of the Year!

[ Voting starts Dec. 26th | B2YB @ToyoTires ] pic.twitter.com/7bXLn0tuYW

— UFC (@ufc) December 8, 2023

He stands heavy on his lead leg, exposing it to low kicks. Furthermore, Makhachev doesn't like fighting on the front foot, playing a patient game, affording his opponent with space. In a sense, he's similar to Garry, who is a very tricky fighter due to his size, quickness and fight IQ. Garry's lateral movement and range make him very difficult to pressure and pin down, and he often uses his jab while pivoting at an angle to frustrate his opponent. He rarely allows himself to get sucked into pocket boxing exchanges, instead preferring to keep his opponent on the end of straight punches. However, it's his kicks that could be the difference makers on the feet. He's a quick and snappy kicker, usually punishing his opponent for extending their lead leg whenever they enter range.

Given Makhachev's lead leg-heavy stance, 'The Future' could find himself in prime position to compromise Makhachev's mobility. Additionally, his fight IQ allows him to make mid-fight adaptations, which was the case against Song Kenan at UFC 285. Early in the fight, Song dropped Garry with a counter-left hook after Garry blasted him with a body shot. After recovering, Garry started sliding just out of range after every body shot, then stepped back in with a one-two that ultimately led to his TKO win in round three. The striking part of the fight will be in Garry's wheelhouse, though Makhachev will be competent. On the wrestling/grappling front, the dynamic becomes more one-sided. Makhachev is, by far, the more skilled wrestler and grappler, with a variety of takedowns at his disposal in the open, against the cage, and from the the clinch.

Whenever his opponent secures an over-under grip in the clinch, Makhachev often goads them into throwing a knee by throwing his own knee first. The moment his opponent retaliates, he trips their standing leg while the other is off the ground, getting a slick Judo takedown. Though Garry is an underrated wrestler, he'll have to be entirely defensive against Makhachev and secure double underhooks while keeping his hips below Makahchev's, which he did against Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310. Unfortunately, once the fight hits the ground, Garry's essentially a sitting duck. He's capable of stalling by securing a body triangle from the bottom, but this means he's often accepting of the position once he's back hits the mat.

Ian Garry stops Song Kenan to pick up his second UFC finish#UFC285pic.twitter.com/TL33cMh8Pe

— MMA Mania (@mmamania) March 5, 2023

He is also prone to rolling onto his stomach, potentially exposing his back to being mounted, and putting him in danger of a rear-naked choke.  These issues become more pronounced the more tired Garry gets, which would amount to certain defeat against Makhachev, who is a dangerous submission threat, with an arsenal of chokes at his disposal.

The Verdict

The reality of the UFC 330 main event is that Ian Machado Garry will likely dominate the fight if it stays standing. A striking affair against a taller, quicker, and rangier fighter, who is an expert at neutralizing his opponent's offense, will be tough for Islam Makhachev to overcome, especially since the welterweight champ himself prefers to fight at range. He will, by default, give Garry the time and space he likes and needs. However, if Makhachev, by any chance, gets the fight to the ground, it'll be a difficult night for Garry.

There's also the matter of Garry's gas tank. He does slow down, and once he does, his technique and discipline fall off a cliff. Given his unremarkable punching power, the odds of the bout lasting five rounds are high. He'll tire, and Makhachev will win via unanimous decision.