Carlos Prates vs. Michael Morales: An early look at the interim title fight

Carlos Prates vs. Michael Morales has been set for UFC 336. The two men will compete for the interim welterweight title while they await Islam Makhachev's return, and the fight may not be as competitive as many expect.

The Muay Thai of Carlos Prates

On the feet, both men present a knockout threat, but Carlos Prates is the more technical striker. His power isn't just because he hits harder than everyone else, but also because he finds the right openings. He maintains a wide stance and, at times, leans forward, with his chin past his lead knee, to offer it up as an open target. If his opponent bites, he can lean back and catch them with a counterpunch, but there's so much more to his game. He typically controls distance with jabs and low kicks. Since he's almost always the taller, longer man, he can force his opponent to fight at a much longer range than they're accustomed to, frustrating them when they can't close the distance comfortably.

He combines this long range with feints and by keeping his hands low as he hops around the cage, circling when he has to in order to keep himself from getting pinned against the fence. This sets up his counterpunching because, with his hands low and his chin exposed, he's an enticing target. It also makes his punches harder for the opponent to see coming because they come up from hip level, and due to his height and length, from a range where he can hit them and they can't hit him back. Once his opponent tries to come forward with a punch, he hops back and shoulder-rolls, which is made easier by the fact that his hands are already low, so his shoulder is always in position to deflect a punch as he moves. He also turns his torso, exiting at an angle to land a counter-hook on his opponent's open side. 

However, opponents who are hesitant to come forward and get countered are still in danger. Prates will use his jab to setup the one-two, but if his opponent starts to raise their guard to block it, he'll fake the jab, then come around the guard with a right hook. To keep his opponent from getting accustomed to that setup, he'll occasionally fake it to force his opponent to flare out their elbows and tuck in their chins, so he can intercept their dipping head with a step-in knee.

He also varies his target, kneeing the body as much as the head, while also moving his shoulders to make it seem like a combination is coming, only to low kick his opponent out of their stance. If the opponent tries to tuck their elbows into their sides to protect their midsection from a knee, he uses that opening to land a step-in elbow over the top. It's how he picked Jack Della Maddalena apart at UFC Perth, TKO'ing him in round three. He's a multi-faceted threat on the feet, and ready to use every limb to his advantage.

The Physicality of Michael Morales

Michael Morales is the more impressive physical specimen of the two. He's an inch shorter than 'The Nightmare,' but his wingspan is an inch longer. He's very powerful and freakishly strong, cutting a tremendous amount of weight to make 170 pounds. However, Morales's success isn't entirely dependent on his physical gifts. First, he often fights from a low, wide stance with his legs bent, hips squared, and his hands kept close to his hips to hide his reach. This allows him to lunge into range and land heavy shots when his opponent least expects it. He does have a jab, which he uses to convince his opponent to raise their guard, landing hard, but it's not exceptional.

Once his opponent obliges with a high guard, Morales pounces with looping combinations around the guard, cracking the opponent on the open side. This typically happens once he has stalked his foe to the fence. With no more space to retreat into, they're forced into pocket boxing exchanges with a larger, more powerful fighter. Even a highly experienced fighter like Gilbert Burns, a former welterweight title challenger, wilted in that position. However, Morales' habit of getting into brawls is concerning. It makes him hittable, and he'll also swing wildly, with his chin sometimes past his lead knee, making him very susceptible to getting countered.

Morales also punches ahead of himself, forcing him to reset his stance, during which he is vulnerable. He isn't concerned due to his confidence and power, which is also why he has no issue committing to high-risk strikes like flying knees simply to close the distance when he's out of ideas, but it isn't ideal. Defensively, he doesn't move his head well, but will use level changes and the threat of his own power to get the opponent to back up. If that doesn't work, he's content to smother their punches by clinching, where his size, strength, and leverage give him an advantage over almost anyone.

Part of his low stance is also to facilitate his wrestling, as it makes sprawling easier. Despite his own wrestling background, he rarely uses it offensively, and unless he starts to doubt his own striking against Prates, he's unlikely to use it at UFC 336.

Carlos Prates vs. Michael Morales: The Verdict

The fight between Carlos Prates vs. Michael Morales had already drawn some interest well before it was made official. Now, it's heating up with trash talk between both men. None of that, though, will matter in the cage. Prates' jab will serve him well against Morales' lack of strong distance management tools. Things will only get worse when Morales, who is so heavy on his hyper-exposed lead leg, gets blasted by low kicks. 

That wide stance will cause him trouble, as will the step-in knees Prates will find with how low Morales fights, and the counters he'll land whenever Morales lunges in. This has all the makings of a Prates masterclass, so expect 'The Nightmare' to TKO Morales late in the fight, unless Morales can make things interesting by wrestling.