Who's Next to Get Chance at UFC Lightweight Championship?

The UFC lightweight division has entered another interesting period. Justin Gaethje is the champion, Ilia Topuria sits at No. 1, Arman Tsarukyan is No. 2 and Charles Oliveira is No. 3 in the current UFC rankings.

Mauricio Ruffy, meanwhile, has climbed to No. 7 ahead of his Sept. 19 fight with Tsarukyan at UFC 331. That leaves the UFC with several credible options for the next title picture.

Tsarukyan has the ranking and a strong recent run behind him. Oliveira has championship experience, a huge fan following and a recent claim that he deserves another opportunity against Gaethje. Ruffy could also force his way into the conversation if he beats Tsarukyan.

The question is no longer simply who deserves a title shot. It is who has the strongest case when rankings, recent performances and the UFC's matchmaking all come into consideration.

Arman Tsarukyan Still Has a Strong Case at UFC Lightweight Championship

Tsarukyan has been one of the most consistent contenders at 155 pounds over the past several years. His UFC career began in difficult circumstances.

He made his promotional debut against Islam Makhachev in April 2019 and lost a unanimous decision. The fight nevertheless earned him a Fight of the Night bonus and established Tsarukyan as a serious prospect against one of the division's future champions.

Since then, Tsarukyan has developed into one of the division's most complete fighters.

Arman Tsarukyan on Hot Streak

He currently holds a 23-3 record and has won five consecutive fights. His recent victories include a split decision over Oliveira at UFC 300 and a second-round submission of Dan Hooker in November 2025.

The Oliveira victory is particularly important because it gives Tsarukyan a head-to-head win over another fighter currently competing for a place near the top of the division.

However, his route to a title shot has not been straightforward.

Tsarukyan was scheduled to challenge Makhachev for the lightweight championship at UFC 311 in January 2025 but withdrew from the fight because of an injury. He later returned to competition and defeated Hooker, but the title opportunity did not immediately return with him.

Now he faces Ruffy at UFC 331. The stakes are significant, but Tsarukyan himself recently acknowledged that a victory does not automatically guarantee him a title shot.

That makes his upcoming fight more important than simply another ranking contest.

Charles Oliveira Has a Different Kind of Claim in UFC Lightweight Championship Race

Oliveira's argument is based less on his current ranking and more on his history, recent form and relationship with the current champion. The Brazilian is currently ranked No. 3 at lightweight and remains one of the most accomplished fighters in UFC history. He holds promotional records for finishes, submissions and post-fight bonuses, according to the UFC.

More importantly, Oliveira has already beaten Gaethje. He submitted Gaethje in the first round at UFC 274 in 2022 to retain his lightweight championship.

Oliveira Hungry for Another Title Shot

Although Oliveira subsequently lost the title to Makhachev, that previous victory gives him a legitimate argument for a rematch with the current champion. Oliveira also owns a recent win over Michael Chandler, although he lost a split decision to Tsarukyan at UFC 300 and was knocked out by Topuria in their vacant-title fight at UFC 317 in June 2025.

Despite those setbacks, Oliveira believes his position in the division warrants another title opportunity. Recent comments from Oliveira indicate that he does not want to fight Tsarukyan or Paddy Pimblett in another eliminator. Instead, he wants to wait for a title fight with Gaethje, even if that means waiting until early 2027.

The Ruffy Factor Changes Everything in UFC Lightweight Championship Picture

The biggest variable in the lightweight title picture may be the fighter who is not currently ranked inside the top five. Ruffy has quickly climbed the rankings and now sits at No. 7. He will face Tsarukyan in a five-round co-main event at UFC 331, and the UFC has described the bout as carrying lightweight title implications.

Ruffy has won his last two fights by stoppage, including a first-round knockout of Michael Chandler at UFC Freedom 250. He has also said that a victory over Tsarukyan could take him directly to a title shot.

If that happens, the UFC could have an entirely different contender entering the title picture. A Ruffy victory would give the promotion a fresh challenger with considerable momentum. A Tsarukyan win, meanwhile, would strengthen the case of the No. 2-ranked contender who already owns a victory over Oliveira.

Merit Versus Matchmaking

This is where the lightweight division becomes particularly difficult to predict. If rankings and recent performances are the only criteria, Tsarukyan has an excellent case. He is ranked second, has won five straight and owns a recent victory over Oliveira.

Oliveira's argument is different. He is a former champion, has already defeated Gaethje and remains one of the UFC's biggest names at 155 pounds. He also currently holds the BMF championship after defeating Max Holloway at UFC 326.

Then there's Topuria, who remains ranked No. 1 despite stepping away from competition while dealing with matters outside the Octagon.The UFC therefore has no shortage of credible contenders.

The problem is that not all of them can receive the next title opportunity.

Who Should Get the Shot?

Right now, Tsarukyan has the strongest sporting argument, but that doesn't make the decision automatic.He still has to beat Ruffy at UFC 331. A victory would extend his winning streak to six and give the UFC an even stronger reason to put him next to Gaethje.

Oliveira, however, is not simply a former champion trying to jump the line. His previous victory over Gaethje, his current ranking and his status as one of the promotion's most established stars give him a legitimate claim of his own.

The outcome of UFC 331 could settle much of the debate. If Tsarukyan wins, the UFC will have a compelling reason to put him next in line. If Ruffy pulls off the upset, the division could suddenly have a new contender demanding the opportunity.

For now, the lightweight title picture remains unsettled. That uncertainty is not necessarily a problem. It is a sign of how much talent exists at the top of one of the UFC's deepest divisions.

The next few fights will determine whether the next chapter belongs to Tsarukyan, Oliveira, Ruffy or another contender waiting just behind them.